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arXiv · 2105.12730

Markov Genealogy Processes

Aaron A. King·Qianying Lin·Edward L. Ionides
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Abstract

We construct a family of genealogy-valued Markov processes that are induced by a continuous-time Markov population process. We derive exact expressions for the likelihood of a given genealogy conditional on the history of the underlying population process. These lead to a nonlinear filtering equation which can be used to design efficient Monte Carlo inference algorithms. We demonstrate these calculations with several examples. Existing full-information approaches for phylodynamic inference are special cases of the theory.

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BibTeXRIS

Aaron A. King, Qianying Lin, Edward L. Ionides. 2021-05-26. Markov Genealogy Processes. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tpb.2021.11.003

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