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arXiv · 2106.08048

Epidemic modelling of multiple virus strains: a case study of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 in Moscow

Boris Tseytlin·Ilya Makarov
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Abstract

During a long-running pandemic a pathogen can mutate, producing new strains with different epidemiological parameters. Existing approaches to epidemic modelling only consider one virus strain. We have developed a modified SEIR model to simulate multiple virus strains within the same population. As a case study, we investigate the potential effects of SARS-CoV-2 strain B.1.1.7 on the city of Moscow. Our analysis indicates a high risk of a new wave of infections in September-October 2021 with up to 35 000 daily infections at peak. We open-source our code and data.

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Boris Tseytlin, Ilya Makarov. 2021-06-15. Epidemic modelling of multiple virus strains: a case study of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 in Moscow. https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.08048

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