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arXiv · 2106.10348

Metapopulation models imply non-Poissonian statistics of interevent times

Elohim Fonseca dos Reis·Naoki Masuda
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Abstract

Interevent times in temporal contact data from humans and animals typically obey heavy-tailed distributions, and this property impacts contagion and other dynamical processes on networks. We theoretically show that distributions of interevent times heavier-tailed than exponential distributions are a consequence of the most basic metapopulation model used in epidemiology and ecology, in which individuals move from a patch to another according to the simple random walk. Our results hold true irrespectively of the network structure and also for more realistic mobility rules such as high-order random walks and the recurrent mobility patterns used for modeling human dynamics.

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Elohim Fonseca dos Reis, Naoki Masuda. 2021-06-18. Metapopulation models imply non-Poissonian statistics of interevent times. https://doi.org/10.1103/physrevresearch.4.013050

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