A simple model for predicting the hurricane radius of maximum wind from outer size

Abstract

The radius of maximum wind ($R_{max}$) in a hurricane governs the footprint of hazards, particularly damaging wind and rainfall. However, $R_{max}$ is noisy to observe directly and is poorly resolved in reanalyses and climate models. In contrast, outer wind radii are much less sensitive to such issues. Here we present a simple empirical model for predicting $R_{max}$ from the radius of 34-kt wind ($R_{17.5ms}$) that only requires as input quantities that are routinely estimated operationally: maximum wind speed, $R_{17.5ms}$, and latitude. The form of the empirical model takes advantage of our physical understanding of hurricane radial structure and is trained on the Extended Best Track database from the North Atlantic; results are similar for the TC-OBS database. The physics reduces the relationship between the two radii to a dependence on two physical parameters, while the observational data enables an optimal estimate of the quantitative dependence on those parameters. The model performs substantially better than existing operational methods for estimating $R_{max}$. The model reproduces the observed statistical increase in $R_{max}$ with latitude and demonstrates that this increase is driven by the increase in $R_{17.5ms}$ with latitude. Overall, the model offers a simple and fast first-order prediction of $R_{max}$ that can be used operationally and in risk models.