Using machine learning techniques to predict hospital admission at the emergency department

Georgios Feretzakis; George Karlis; Evangelos Loupelis; Dimitris Kalles; Rea Chatzikyriakou; Nikolaos Trakas; Eugenia Karakou; Aikaterini Sakagianni; Lazaros Tzelves; Stavroula Petropoulou; Aikaterini Tika; Ilias Dalainas; Vasileios Kaldis

arXiv · 2106.12921

Using machine learning techniques to predict hospital admission at the emergency department

Georgios Feretzakis·George Karlis·Evangelos Loupelis·Dimitris Kalles·Rea Chatzikyriakou·Nikolaos Trakas·Eugenia Karakou·Aikaterini Sakagianni·Lazaros Tzelves·Stavroula Petropoulou·Aikaterini Tika·Ilias Dalainas·Vasileios Kaldis

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Abstract

Introduction: One of the most important tasks in the Emergency Department (ED) is to promptly identify the patients who will benefit from hospital admission. Machine Learning (ML) techniques show promise as diagnostic aids in healthcare. Material and methods: We investigated the following features seeking to investigate their performance in predicting hospital admission: serum levels of Urea, Creatinine, Lactate Dehydrogenase, Creatine Kinase, C-Reactive Protein, Complete Blood Count with differential, Activated Partial Thromboplastin Time, D Dimer, International Normalized Ratio, age, gender, triage disposition to ED unit and ambulance utilization. A total of 3,204 ED visits were analyzed. Results: The proposed algorithms generated models which demonstrated acceptable performance in predicting hospital admission of ED patients. The range of F-measure and ROC Area values of all eight evaluated algorithms were [0.679-0.708] and [0.734-0.774], respectively. Discussion: The main advantages of this tool include easy access, availability, yes/no result, and low cost. The clinical implications of our approach might facilitate a shift from traditional clinical decision-making to a more sophisticated model. Conclusion: Developing robust prognostic models with the utilization of common biomarkers is a project that might shape the future of emergency medicine. Our findings warrant confirmation with implementation in pragmatic ED trials.

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Georgios Feretzakis, George Karlis, Evangelos Loupelis, Dimitris Kalles, Rea Chatzikyriakou, Nikolaos Trakas, Eugenia Karakou, Aikaterini Sakagianni, Lazaros Tzelves, Stavroula Petropoulou, Aikaterini Tika, Ilias Dalainas, Vasileios Kaldis. 2021-06-23. Using machine learning techniques to predict hospital admission at the emergency department. https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.12921

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