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arXiv · 2107.00203

Travel Cadence and Epidemic Spread

Lauren Streitmatter·Peter Zhang
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Abstract

In this paper, we study how interactions between populations impact epidemic spread. We extend the classical SEIR model to include both integration-based disease transmission simulation and population flow. Our model differs from existing ones by having a more detailed representation of travel patterns, without losing tractability. This allows us to study the epidemic consequence of inter-regional travel with high fidelity. In particular, we define \emph{travel cadence} as a two-dimensional measure of inter-regional travel, and show that both dimensions modulate epidemic spread. This technical insight leads to policy recommendations, pointing to a family of simple policy trajectories that can effectively curb epidemic spread while maintaining a basic level of mobility.

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Lauren Streitmatter, Peter Zhang. 2021-07-01. Travel Cadence and Epidemic Spread. https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.00203

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