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arXiv · 2107.10108

Multiple species animal movements: network properties, disease dynamic and the impact of targeted control actions

Nicolas C. Cardenas·Abagael L. Sykes·Francisco P. N. Lopes·Gustavo Machado
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Abstract

Infectious diseases in livestock are well-known to infect multiple hosts and persist through the combination of within- and between-host transmission pathways. Uncertainty remains about the epidemic consequences of the disease being introduced on farms with more than one susceptible host. Here we describe multi-host contact networks to elucidate the potential of disease spread among farms with multiple species. Four years of between-farm animal movement data of bovine, swine, small ruminants, and multi-host, were described through both static and time-series networks; the in-going and out-going contact chains were also calculated. We use the proposed stochastic multilevel model to simulate scenarios in which infection was seeded into a single host and multi-hosts farms, to estimate epidemic trajectories and simulate network-based control actions to assess the reduction of secondarily infected farms. Our analysis showed that the swine network was more connected than cattle and small ruminants in the temporal network view. The small ruminants network was shown disconnected, however, allowing the interaction among networks with different hosts enabling the spread of disease throughout the network. Independently from the initial infected host, secondary infections were observed crossing overall species. We showed that targeting the top 3.25% of the farms ranked by degree could reduce the total number of infected farms below 70% at the end of the simulation period. In conclusion, we demonstrated the potential of the multi-host network in disease propagation, therefore, it becomes important to consider the observed multi-host movement dynamics while designing surveillance and preparedness control strategies.

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Nicolas C. Cardenas, Abagael L. Sykes, Francisco P. N. Lopes, Gustavo Machado. 2021-07-21. Multiple species animal movements: network properties, disease dynamic and the impact of targeted control actions. https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.10108

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