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arXiv · 2107.11849

Optimal Control to Limit the Spread of COVID-19 in Italy

Mohamed Abdelaziz Zaitri·Mohand Ouamer Bibi·Delfim F. M. Torres
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Abstract

We apply optimal control theory to a generalized SEIR-type model. The proposed system has three controls, representing social distancing, preventive means, and treatment measures to combat the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyze such optimal control problem with respect to real data transmission in Italy. Our results show the appropriateness of the model, in particular with respect to the number of quarantined/hospitalized (confirmed and infected) and recovered individuals. Considering the Pontryagin controls, we show how in a perfect world one could have drastically diminish the number of susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined/hospitalized, and death individuals, by increasing the population of insusceptible/protected.

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Mohamed Abdelaziz Zaitri, Mohand Ouamer Bibi, Delfim F. M. Torres. 2021-07-25. Optimal Control to Limit the Spread of COVID-19 in Italy. https://doi.org/10.48129/kjs.splcov.13961

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