Causal mediation analysis with mediator values below an assay limit

Ariel Chernofsky; Ronald J. Bosch; Judith J. Lok

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arXiv · 2107.14782

Causal mediation analysis with mediator values below an assay limit

Ariel Chernofsky·Ronald J. Bosch·Judith J. Lok

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Abstract

Causal indirect and direct effects provide an interpretable method for decomposing the total effect of an exposure on an outcome into the effect through a mediator and the effect through all other pathways. When the mediator is a biomarker, values can be subject to an assay lower limit. The mediator is affected by the treatment and is a putative cause of the outcome, so the assay lower limit presents a compounded problem in mediation analysis. We propose three approaches to estimate indirect and direct effects with a mediator subject to an assay limit: 1. extrapolation 2. numerical optimization and integration of the observed likelihood and 3. the Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization (MCEM) algorithm. Since the described methods solely rely on the so-called Mediation Formula, they apply to most approaches to causal mediation analysis: natural, separable, and organic indirect and direct effects. A simulation study compares the estimation approaches to imputing with half the assay limit. Using HIV interruption study data from the AIDS Clinical Trials Group described in [Li et al. 2016, AIDS; Lok \& Bosch 2021, Epidemiology], we illustrate our methods by estimating the organic/pure indirect effect of a hypothetical HIV curative treatment on viral suppression mediated by two HIV persistence measures: cell-associated HIV-RNA (N = 124) and single copy plasma HIV-RNA (N = 96).

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Ariel Chernofsky, Ronald J. Bosch, Judith J. Lok. 2021-07-30. Causal mediation analysis with mediator values below an assay limit. https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.14782

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