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arXiv · 2108.10075

Minimizing ruin probability under dependencies for insurance pricing

Ragnar Levy Gudmundarson·Manuel Guerra·Alexandra Bugalho de Moura
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Abstract

In this work the ruin probability of the Lundberg risk process is used as a criterion for determining the optimal security loading of premia in the presence of price-sensitive demand for insurance. Both single and aggregated claim processes are considered and the independent and the dependent cases are analyzed. For the single-risk case, we show that the optimal loading does not depend on the initial reserve. In the multiple risk case we account for arbitrary dependency structures between different risks and for dependencies between the probabilities of a client acquiring policies for different risks. In this case, the optimal loadings depend on the initial reserve. In all cases the loadings minimizing the ruin probability do not coincide with the loadings maximizing the expected profit.

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Ragnar Levy Gudmundarson, Manuel Guerra, Alexandra Bugalho de Moura. 2021-08-03. Minimizing ruin probability under dependencies for insurance pricing. https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.10075

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