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arXiv · 2109.04622

Uncertainty Analysis Of Future Projections Of Temperature, Precipitation, And Solar Radiation Under Global Warming Effect In Tehran, Iran

Ehsan Mosadegh·Iman Babaeian
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Abstract

In order to investigate the scope of uncertainty in projections of GCMs for Tehran province, a multi-model projection composed of 15 models is employed. The projected changes in minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation under the A1B scenario for Tehran province are investigated for 2011-2030, 2046-2065, and 2080-2099. GCM projections for the study region are downscaled by the LARS-WG5 model. Uncertainty among the projections is evaluated from three perspectives: large-scale climate scenarios downscaled values, and mean decadal changes. 15 GCMs unanimously project an increasing trend in the temperature for the study region. Also, uncertainty in the projections for the summer months is greater than projection uncertainty for other months. The mean absolute surface temperature increase for the three periods is projected to be about 0.8{\deg}C, 2.4{\deg}C, and 3.8{\deg}C in the summers, respectively. The uncertainty of the multi-model projections for precipitation in summer seasons, and the radiation in the springs and falls is higher than other seasons for the study region. Model projections indicate that for the three future periods and relative to their baseline period, springtime precipitation will decrease about 5\%, 10\%, and 20\%, and springtime radiation will increase about 0.5\%, 1.5\%, and 3\%, respectively. The projected mean decadal changes indicate an increase in temperature and radiation and a decrease in precipitation. Furthermore, the performance of the GCMs in simulating the baseline climate by the MOTP method does not indicate any distinct pattern among the GCMs for the study region.

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Ehsan Mosadegh, Iman Babaeian. 2021-09-10. Uncertainty Analysis Of Future Projections Of Temperature, Precipitation, And Solar Radiation Under Global Warming Effect In Tehran, Iran. https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.04622

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