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arXiv · 2109.05122

Global stability of SAIRS epidemic models

Stefania Ottaviano·Mattia Sensi·Sara Sottile
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Abstract

We study an SAIRS-type epidemic model with vaccination, where the role of asymptomatic and symptomatic infectious individuals are explicitly considered in the transmission patterns of the disease. We provide a global stability analysis for the model. We determine the value of the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$ and prove that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if $\mathcal{R}_0<1$ and unstable if $\mathcal{R}_0>1$, condition under which a positive endemic equilibrium exists. We investigate the global stability of the endemic equilibrium for some variations of the original model under study and answer to an open problem proposed in Ansumali et al. \cite{ansumali2020modelling}. In the case of the SAIRS model without vaccination, we prove the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium also when $\mathcal{R}_0=1$. We provide a thorough numerical exploration of our model, to validate our analytical results.

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Stefania Ottaviano, Mattia Sensi, Sara Sottile. 2021-09-10. Global stability of SAIRS epidemic models. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nonrwa.2021.103501

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