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arXiv · 2109.13730

Interoperability of statistical models in pandemic preparedness: principles and reality

George Nicholson·Marta Blangiardo·Mark Briers·Peter J. Diggle·Tor Erlend Fjelde·Hong Ge·Robert J. B. Goudie·Radka Jersakova·Ruairidh E. King·Brieuc C. L. Lehmann·Ann-Marie Mallon·Tullia Padellini·Yee Whye Teh·Chris Holmes·Sylvia Richardson
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Abstract

We present "interoperability" as a guiding framework for statistical modelling to assist policy makers asking multiple questions using diverse datasets in the face of an evolving pandemic response. Interoperability provides an important set of principles for future pandemic preparedness, through the joint design and deployment of adaptable systems of statistical models for disease surveillance using probabilistic reasoning. We illustrate this through case studies for inferring spatial-temporal coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prevalence and reproduction numbers in England.

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George Nicholson, Marta Blangiardo, Mark Briers, Peter J. Diggle, Tor Erlend Fjelde, Hong Ge, Robert J. B. Goudie, Radka Jersakova, Ruairidh E. King, Brieuc C. L. Lehmann, Ann-Marie Mallon, Tullia Padellini, Yee Whye Teh, Chris Holmes, Sylvia Richardson. 2021-09-28. Interoperability of statistical models in pandemic preparedness: principles and reality. https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.13730

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