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arXiv · 2110.05622

Review of Kernel Learning for Intra-Hour Solar Forecasting with Infrared Sky Images and Cloud Dynamic Feature Extraction

Guillermo Terrén-Serrano·Manel Martínez-Ramón
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Abstract

The uncertainty of the energy generated by photovoltaic systems incurs an additional cost for a guaranteed, reliable supply of energy (i.e., energy storage). This investigation aims to decrease the additional cost by introducing probabilistic multi-task intra-hour solar forecasting (feasible in real time applications) to increase the penetration of photovoltaic systems in power grids. The direction of moving clouds is estimated in consecutive sequences of sky images by extracting features of cloud dynamics with the objective of forecasting the global solar irradiance that reaches photovoltaic systems. The sky images are acquired using a low-cost infrared sky imager mounted on a solar tracker. The solar forecasting algorithm is based on kernel learning methods, and uses the clear sky index as predictor and features extracted from clouds as feature vectors. The proposed solar forecasting algorithm achieved 16.45\% forecasting skill 8 minutes ahead with a resolution of 15 seconds. In contrast, previous work reached 15.4\% forecasting skill with the resolution of 1 minute. Therefore, this solar forecasting algorithm increases the performances with respect to the state-of-the-art, providing grid operators with the capability of managing the inherent uncertainties of power grids with a high penetration of photovoltaic systems.

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Guillermo Terrén-Serrano, Manel Martínez-Ramón. 2021-10-11. Review of Kernel Learning for Intra-Hour Solar Forecasting with Infrared Sky Images and Cloud Dynamic Feature Extraction. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2022.113125

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