Vaccination with partial transmission and social distancing on contact networks

Christian John Hurry; Alexander Mozeika; Alessia Annibale

doi:10.1088/1742-5468/ac50ae

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arXiv · 2110.06616

Vaccination with partial transmission and social distancing on contact networks

Christian John Hurry·Alexander Mozeika·Alessia Annibale

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Abstract

We study the impact of vaccination on the risk of epidemics spreading through structured networks using the cavity method of statistical physics. We relax the assumption that vaccination prevents all transmission of a disease used in previous studies, such that vaccinated nodes have a small probability of transmission. To do so we extend the cavity method to study networks where nodes have heterogeneous transmissibility. We find that vaccination with partial transmission still provides herd immunity and show how the herd immunity threshold depends upon the assortativity between nodes of different transmissibility. In addition, we study the impact of social distancing via bond percolation and show that percolation targeting links between nodes of high transmissibility can reduce the risk of an epidemic greater than targeting links between nodes of high degree. Finally, we extend recent methods to compute the distributional equations of risk in populations with heterogeneous transmissibility and show how targeted social distancing measures may reduce overall risk greater than untargeted vaccination campaigns, by comparing the effect of random and targeted strategies of node and link deletion on the risk distribution.

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Christian John Hurry, Alexander Mozeika, Alessia Annibale. 2021-10-13. Vaccination with partial transmission and social distancing on contact networks. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468%2Fac50ae

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