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arXiv · 2110.11896

Multimodel Bayesian Analysis of Load Duration Effects in Lumber Reliability

Yunfeng Yang·Martin Lysy·Samuel W. K. Wong
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Abstract

This paper evaluates the reliability of lumber, accounting for the duration-of-load (DOL) effect under different load profiles based on a multimodel Bayesian approach. Three individual DOL models previously used for reliability assessment are considered: the US model, the Canadian model, and the Gamma process model. Procedures for stochastic generation of residential, snow, and wind loads are also described. We propose Bayesian model-averaging (BMA) as a method for combining the reliability estimates of individual models under a given load profile that coherently accounts for statistical uncertainty in the choice of model and parameter values. The method is applied to the analysis of a Hemlock experimental dataset, where the BMA results are illustrated via estimated reliability indices together with 95% interval bands.

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Yunfeng Yang, Martin Lysy, Samuel W. K. Wong. 2021-10-22. Multimodel Bayesian Analysis of Load Duration Effects in Lumber Reliability. https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.11896

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