On the Behavioral Consequences of Reverse Causality

Ran Spiegler

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arXiv · 2110.12218

On the Behavioral Consequences of Reverse Causality

Ran Spiegler

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Abstract

Reverse causality is a common causal misperception that distorts the evaluation of private actions and public policies. This paper explores the implications of this error when a decision maker acts on it and therefore affects the very statistical regularities from which he draws faulty inferences. Using a quadratic-normal parameterization and applying the Bayesian-network approach of Spiegler (2016), I demonstrate the subtle equilibrium effects of a certain class of reverse-causality errors, with illustrations in diverse areas: development psychology, social policy, monetary economics and IO. In particular, the decision context may protect the decision maker from his own reverse-causality causal error. That is, the cost of reverse-causality errors can be lower for everyday decision makers than for an outside observer who evaluates their choices.

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Ran Spiegler. 2021-10-23. On the Behavioral Consequences of Reverse Causality. https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.12218

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