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arXiv · 2110.15034

Estimating a continuously varying offset between multivariate time series with application to COVID-19 in the United States

Nick James·Max Menzies
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Abstract

This paper introduces new methods to track the offset between two multivariate time series on a continuous basis. We then apply this framework to COVID-19 counts on a state-by-state basis in the United States to determine the progression from cases to deaths as a function of time. Across multiple approaches, we reveal an "up-down-up" pattern in the estimated offset between reported cases and deaths as the pandemic progresses. This analysis could be used to predict imminent increased load on a healthcare system and aid the allocation of additional resources in advance.

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Nick James, Max Menzies. 2021-10-28. Estimating a continuously varying offset between multivariate time series with application to COVID-19 in the United States. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-022-00430-y

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