Joint Models for Cause-of-Death Mortality in Multiple Populations

Nhan Huynh; Mike Ludkovski

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arXiv · 2111.06631

Joint Models for Cause-of-Death Mortality in Multiple Populations

Nhan Huynh·Mike Ludkovski

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Abstract

We investigate jointly modeling Age-specific rates of various causes of death in a multinational setting. We apply Multi-Output Gaussian Processes (MOGP), a spatial machine learning method, to smooth and extrapolate multiple cause-of-death mortality rates across several countries and both genders. To maintain flexibility and scalability, we investigate MOGPs with Kronecker-structured kernels and latent factors. In particular, we develop a custom multi-level MOGP that leverages the gridded structure of mortality tables to efficiently capture heterogeneity and dependence across different factor inputs. Results are illustrated with datasets from the Human Cause-of-Death Database (HCD). We discuss a case study involving cancer variations in three European nations, and a US-based study that considers eight top-level causes and includes comparison to all-cause analysis. Our models provide insights into the commonality of cause-specific mortality trends and demonstrate the opportunities for respective data fusion.

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Nhan Huynh, Mike Ludkovski. 2021-11-12. Joint Models for Cause-of-Death Mortality in Multiple Populations. https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.06631

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