Factor-augmented tree ensembles

Filippo Pellegrino

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arXiv · 2111.14000

Factor-augmented tree ensembles

Filippo Pellegrino

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Abstract

This manuscript proposes to extend the information set of time-series regression trees with latent stationary factors extracted via state-space methods. In doing so, this approach generalises time-series regression trees on two dimensions. First, it allows to handle predictors that exhibit measurement error, non-stationary trends, seasonality and/or irregularities such as missing observations. Second, it gives a transparent way for using domain-specific theory to inform time-series regression trees. Empirically, ensembles of these factor-augmented trees provide a reliable approach for macro-finance problems. This article highlights it focussing on the lead-lag effect between equity volatility and the business cycle in the United States.

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BibTeX RIS

Filippo Pellegrino. 2021-11-27. Factor-augmented tree ensembles. https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.14000

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