Inconsistent Planning: When in doubt, toss a coin!

Yuriy Dementiev; Fedor V. Fomin; Artur Ignatiev

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arXiv · 2112.03329

Inconsistent Planning: When in doubt, toss a coin!

Yuriy Dementiev·Fedor V. Fomin·Artur Ignatiev

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Abstract

One of the most widespread human behavioral biases is the present bias -- the tendency to overestimate current costs by a bias factor. Kleinberg and Oren (2014) introduced an elegant graph-theoretical model of inconsistent planning capturing the behavior of a present-biased agent accomplishing a set of actions. The essential measure of the system introduced by Kleinberg and Oren is the cost of irrationality -- the ratio of the total cost of the actions performed by the present-biased agent to the optimal cost. This measure is vital for a task designer to estimate the aftermaths of human behavior related to time-inconsistent planning, including procrastination and abandonment. As we prove in this paper, the cost of irrationality is highly susceptible to the agent's choices when faced with a few possible actions of equal estimated costs. To address this issue, we propose a modification of Kleinberg-Oren's model of inconsistent planning. In our model, when an agent selects from several options of minimum prescribed cost, he uses a randomized procedure. We explore the algorithmic complexity of computing and estimating the cost of irrationality in the new model.

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Yuriy Dementiev, Fedor V. Fomin, Artur Ignatiev. 2021-12-06. Inconsistent Planning: When in doubt, toss a coin!. https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.03329

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