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arXiv · 2112.13687

Predi\c{c}\~ao de Incid\^encia de Les\~ao por Press\~ao em Pacientes de UTI usando Aprendizado de M\'aquina

Henrique P. Silva·Arthur D. Reys·Daniel S. Severo·Dominique H. Ruther·Flávio A. O. B. Silva·Maria C. S. S. Guimarães·Roberto Z. A. Pinto·Saulo D. S. Pedro·Túlio P. Navarro·Danilo Silva
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Abstract

Pressure ulcers have high prevalence in ICU patients but are preventable if identified in initial stages. In practice, the Braden scale is used to classify high-risk patients. This paper investigates the use of machine learning in electronic health records data for this task, by using data available in MIMIC-III v1.4. Two main contributions are made: a new approach for evaluating models that considers all predictions made during a stay, and a new training method for the machine learning models. The results show a superior performance in comparison to the state of the art; moreover, all models surpass the Braden scale in every operating point in the precision-recall curve. -- -- Les\~oes por press\~ao possuem alta preval\^encia em pacientes de UTI e s\~ao preven\'iveis ao serem identificadas em est\'agios iniciais. Na pr\'atica utiliza-se a escala de Braden para classifica\c{c}\~ao de pacientes em risco. Este artigo investiga o uso de aprendizado de m\'aquina em dados de registros eletr\^onicos para este fim, a partir da base de dados MIMIC-III v1.4. S\~ao feitas duas contribui\c{c}\~oes principais: uma nova abordagem para a avalia\c{c}\~ao dos modelos e da escala de Braden levando em conta todas as predi\c{c}\~oes feitas ao longo das interna\c{c}\~oes, e um novo m\'etodo de treinamento para os modelos de aprendizado de m\'aquina. Os resultados obtidos superam o estado da arte e verifica-se que os modelos superam significativamente a escala de Braden em todos os pontos de opera\c{c}\~ao da curva de precis\~ao por sensibilidade.

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Henrique P. Silva, Arthur D. Reys, Daniel S. Severo, Dominique H. Ruther, Flávio A. O. B. Silva, Maria C. S. S. Guimarães, Roberto Z. A. Pinto, Saulo D. S. Pedro, Túlio P. Navarro, Danilo Silva. 2021-12-23. Predi\c{c}\~ao de Incid\^encia de Les\~ao por Press\~ao em Pacientes de UTI usando Aprendizado de M\'aquina. https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.13687

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