Attention-based Contextual Multi-View Graph Convolutional Networks for Short-term Population Prediction

Abstract

Short-term future population prediction is a crucial problem in urban computing. Accurate future population prediction can provide rich insights for urban planners or developers. However, predicting the future population is a challenging task due to its complex spatiotemporal dependencies. Many existing works have attempted to capture spatial correlations by partitioning a city into grids and using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). However, CNN merely captures spatial correlations by using a rectangle filter; it ignores urban environmental information such as distribution of railroads and location of POI. Moreover, the importance of those kinds of information for population prediction differs in each region and is affected by contextual situations such as weather conditions and day of the week. To tackle this problem, we propose a novel deep learning model called Attention-based Contextual Multi-View Graph Convolutional Networks (ACMV-GCNs). We first construct multiple graphs based on urban environmental information, and then ACMV-GCNs captures spatial correlations from various views with graph convolutional networks. Further, we add an attention module to consider the contextual situations when leveraging urban environmental information for future population prediction. Using statistics population count data collected through mobile phones, we demonstrate that our proposed model outperforms baseline methods. In addition, by visualizing weights calculated by an attention module, we show that our model learns an efficient way to utilize urban environment information without any prior knowledge.