GCNET: graph-based prediction of stock price movement using graph convolutional network

Abstract

The importance of considering related stocks data for the prediction of stock price movement has been shown in many studies, however, advanced graphical techniques for modeling, embedding and analyzing the behavior of interrelated stocks have not been widely exploited for the prediction of stocks price movements yet. The main challenges in this domain are to find a way for modeling the existing relations among an arbitrary set of stocks and to exploit such a model for improving the prediction performance for those stocks. The most of existing methods in this domain rely on basic graph-analysis techniques, with limited prediction power, and suffer from a lack of generality and flexibility. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework, called GCNET that models the relations among an arbitrary set of stocks as a graph structure called influence network and uses a set of history-based prediction models to infer plausible initial labels for a subset of the stock nodes in the graph. Finally, GCNET uses the Graph Convolutional Network algorithm to analyze this partially labeled graph and predicts the next price direction of movement for each stock in the graph. GCNET is a general prediction framework that can be applied for the prediction of the price fluctuations of interacting stocks based on their historical data. Our experiments and evaluations on a set of stocks from the NASDAQ index demonstrate that GCNET significantly improves the performance of SOTA in terms of accuracy and MCC measures.