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arXiv · 2204.12310

Observation of large scale precursor correlations between cosmic rays and earthquakes

P. Homola·V. Marchenko·A. Napolitano·R. Damian·R. Guzik·D. Alvarez-Castillo·S. Stuglik·O. Ruimi·O. Skorenok·J. Zamora-Saa·J. M. Vaquero·T. Wibig·M. Knap·K. Dziadkowiec·M. Karpiel·O. Sushchov·J. W. Mietelski·K. Gorzkiewicz·N. Zabari·K. Almeida Cheminant·B. Idźkowski·T. Bulik·G. Bhatta·N. Budnev·R. Kamiński·M. V. Medvedev·K. Kozak·O. Bar·Ł. Bibrzycki·M. Bielewicz·M. Frontczak·P. Kovács·B. Łozowski·J. Miszczyk·M. Niedźwiecki·L. del Peral·M. Piekarczyk·M. D. Rodriguez Frias·K. Rzecki·K. Smelcerz·T. Sośnicki·J. Stasielak·A. A. Tursunov
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Abstract

The search for correlations between secondary cosmic ray detection rates and seismic effects has long been a subject of investigation motivated by the hope of identifying a new precursor type that could feed a global early warning system against earthquakes. Here we show for the first time that the average variation of the cosmic ray detection rates correlates with the global seismic activity to be observed with a time lag of approximately two weeks, and that the significance of the effect varies with a periodicity resembling the undecenal solar cycle, with a shift in phase of around three years, exceeding 6 sigma at local maxima. The precursor characteristics of the observed correlations point to a pioneer perspective of an early warning system against earthquakes.

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P. Homola, V. Marchenko, A. Napolitano, R. Damian, R. Guzik, D. Alvarez-Castillo, S. Stuglik, O. Ruimi, O. Skorenok, J. Zamora-Saa, J. M. Vaquero, T. Wibig, M. Knap, K. Dziadkowiec, M. Karpiel, O. Sushchov, J. W. Mietelski, K. Gorzkiewicz, N. Zabari, K. Almeida Cheminant, B. Idźkowski, T. Bulik, G. Bhatta, N. Budnev, R. Kamiński, M. V. Medvedev, K. Kozak, O. Bar, Ł. Bibrzycki, M. Bielewicz, M. Frontczak, P. Kovács, B. Łozowski, J. Miszczyk, M. Niedźwiecki, L. del Peral, M. Piekarczyk, M. D. Rodriguez Frias, K. Rzecki, K. Smelcerz, T. Sośnicki, J. Stasielak, A. A. Tursunov. 2022-04-26. Observation of large scale precursor correlations between cosmic rays and earthquakes. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2023.106068

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