Improved Theory Predictions and Global Analysis of Exclusive $\boldsymbol{b\to s\mu^+\mu^-}$ Processes

Abstract

We provide improved Standard Model theory predictions for the exclusive rare semimuonic processes $B\to K^{(*)}\mu^+\mu^-$ and $B_s\to\phi\mu^+\mu^-$. Our results are based on a novel parametrization of the non-local form factors, which manifestly respects a recently developed dispersive bound. We critically compare our predictions to those obtained in the framework of QCD factorization. Our predictions provide, for the first time, parametric estimates of the systematic uncertainties due to non-local contributions. Comparing our predictions within the Standard Model to available experimental data, we find a large tension for $B\to K\mu^+\mu^-$. A simple model-independent analysis of potential effects beyond the Standard Model yields results compatible with other approaches, albeit with larger uncertainties for the $B\to K^*\mu^+\mu^-$ and $B_s\to \phi\mu^+\mu^-$ decays. Our approach yields systematically improvable predictions, and we look forward to its application in further analyses beyond the Standard Model.