Policy Learning under Endogeneity Using Instrumental Variables

Yan Liu

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arXiv · 2206.09883

Policy Learning under Endogeneity Using Instrumental Variables

Yan Liu

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Abstract

I propose a framework for learning individualized policy rules in observational data settings characterized by endogenous treatment selection and the availability of an instrumental variable. I introduce encouragement rules that manipulate the instrument. By incorporating the marginal treatment effect (MTE) as a policy invariant parameter, I establish the identification of the social welfare criterion for the optimal encouragement rule. Focusing on binary encouragement rules, I propose to estimate the optimal encouragement rule via the Empirical Welfare Maximization (EWM) method and derive the welfare loss convergence rate. I apply my method to advise on the optimal tuition subsidy assignment in Indonesia.

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Yan Liu. 2022-06-20. Policy Learning under Endogeneity Using Instrumental Variables. https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.09883

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