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arXiv · 2207.02316

A general framework to quantify the event importance in multi-event contests

Daniel Goller·Sandro Heiniger
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Abstract

We propose a statistical framework for quantifying the importance of single events that do not provide intermediate rewards but offer implicit incentives through the reward structure at the end of a multi-event contest. Applying the framework to primary elections in the US, where earlier elections have greater importance and influence, we show that schedule variations can mitigate the problem of front-loading elections. When applied to European football, we demonstrate the utility and meaningfulness of quantified event importance in relation to the in-match performance of contestants, to improve outcome prediction and to provide an early indication of public interest.

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Daniel Goller, Sandro Heiniger. 2022-07-05. A general framework to quantify the event importance in multi-event contests. https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.02316

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