Predictive Object-Centric Process Monitoring

Abstract

The automation and digitalization of business processes has resulted in large amounts of data captured in information systems, which can aid businesses in understanding their processes better, improve workflows, or provide operational support. By making predictions about ongoing processes, bottlenecks can be identified and resources reallocated, as well as insights gained into the state of a process instance (case). Traditionally, data is extracted from systems in the form of an event log with a single identifying case notion, such as an order id for an Order to Cash (O2C) process. However, real processes often have multiple object types, for example, order, item, and package, so a format that forces the use of a single case notion does not reflect the underlying relations in the data. The Object-Centric Event Log (OCEL) format was introduced to correctly capture this information. The state-of-the-art predictive methods have been tailored to only traditional event logs. This thesis shows that a prediction method utilizing Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architectures, and Sequence to Sequence models (Seq2seq), can be augmented with the rich data contained in OCEL. Objects in OCEL can have attributes that are useful in predicting the next event and timestamp, such as a priority class attribute for an object type package indicating slower or faster processing. In the metrics of sequence similarity of predicted remaining events and mean absolute error (MAE) of the timestamp, the approach in this thesis matches or exceeds previous research, depending on whether selected object attributes are useful features for the model. Additionally, this thesis provides a web interface to predict the next sequence of activities from user input.