Detecting common bubbles in multivariate mixed causal-noncausal models

Gianluca Cubadda; Alain Hecq; Elisa Voisin

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arXiv · 2207.11557

Detecting common bubbles in multivariate mixed causal-noncausal models

Gianluca Cubadda·Alain Hecq·Elisa Voisin

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Abstract

This paper proposes methods to investigate whether the bubble patterns observed in individual series are common to various series. We detect the non-linear dynamics using the recent mixed causal and noncausal models. Both a likelihood ratio test and information criteria are investigated, the former having better performances in our Monte Carlo simulations. Implementing our approach on three commodity prices we do not find evidence of commonalities although some series look very similar.

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Gianluca Cubadda, Alain Hecq, Elisa Voisin. 2022-07-23. Detecting common bubbles in multivariate mixed causal-noncausal models. https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.11557

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