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arXiv · 2207.11636

Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu

Sergio Correia·Stephan Luck·Emil Verner
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Abstract

We study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on mortality and economic activity across U.S. cities during the 1918 Flu Pandemic. The combination of fast and stringent NPIs reduced peak mortality by 50% and cumulative excess mortality by 24% to 34%. However, while the pandemic itself was associated with short-run economic disruptions, we find that these disruptions were similar across cities with strict and lenient NPIs. NPIs also did not worsen medium-run economic outcomes. Our findings indicate that NPIs can reduce disease transmission without further depressing economic activity, a finding also reflected in discussions in contemporary newspapers.

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Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, Emil Verner. 2022-07-24. Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050722000407

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