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arXiv · 2211.00108

Chaotic dynamics of the sugarcane borer-two parasitoid agroecosystem with seasonality

Marat Rafikov·Alexandre Molter·João Inácio Moreira Bezerra·Elvira Rafikova·Maria Cristina Varriale
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Abstract

Sugarcane production is a significant and profitable agribusiness sector in many countries. Nevertheless, this industry suffers significant losses from the sugarcane pests, among which the most important one is the sugarcane borer (Diatraea saccharalis). This pest population is hard to be controlled due to its different life stages, thus biological control (with more than one predator species) can be applied. Therefore, in this work, we present and analyze a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of the sugarcane borer and its two different life stages parasitoids: eggs (Trichogramma galloi}) and larval (Cotesia flavipes). First, a host-parasitoid model is used to obtain the population dynamics, which also considers the influence of seasonal variations. Then, system simulations and bifurcation diagrams show that the introduction of seasonality perturbations causes complex dynamics and results in limit cycles and strange attractors.

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Marat Rafikov, Alexandre Molter, João Inácio Moreira Bezerra, Elvira Rafikova, Maria Cristina Varriale. 2022-10-31. Chaotic dynamics of the sugarcane borer-two parasitoid agroecosystem with seasonality. https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.00108

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