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arXiv · 2211.11075

Modeling the Co-evolution of Climate Impact and Population Behavior: A Mean-Field Analysis

Kathinka Frieswijk·Lorenzo Zino·A. Stephen Morse·Ming Cao
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Abstract

Motivated by the climate crisis that is currently ravaging the planet, we propose and analyze a novel framework for the evolution of anthropogenic climate impact in which the evolution of human environmental behavior and environmental impact is coupled. Our framework includes a human decision-making process that captures social influence, government policy interventions, and the cost of environmentally-friendly behavior, modeled within a game-theoretic paradigm. By taking a mean-field approach in the limit of large populations, we derive the equilibria and their local stability characteristics. Subsequently, we study global convergence, whereby we show that the system converges to a periodic solution for almost all initial conditions. Numerical simulations confirm our findings and suggest that, before the system reaches such a periodic solution, the level of environmental impact might become dangerously high, calling for the design of optimal control strategies to influence the system trajectory.

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Kathinka Frieswijk, Lorenzo Zino, A. Stephen Morse, Ming Cao. 2022-11-20. Modeling the Co-evolution of Climate Impact and Population Behavior: A Mean-Field Analysis. https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.11075

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