Rate-Induced Tipping in Heterogeneous Reaction-Diffusion Systems: An Invariant Manifold Framework and Geographically Shifting Ecosystems

Abstract

We propose a framework to study tipping points in reaction-diffusion equations (RDEs) in one spatial dimension, where the reaction term decays in space (asymptotically homogeneous) and varies linearly with time (nonautonomous) due to an external input. A compactification of the moving-frame coordinate together with Lin's method to construct heteroclinic orbits along intersections of stable and unstable invariant manifolds allows us to (i) obtain multiple coexisting pulse and front solutions for the RDE by computing heteroclinic orbits connecting equilibria at negative and positive infinity in the compactified moving-frame ordinary differential equation, (ii) detect tipping points as dangerous bifurcations of such heteroclinic orbits, and (iii) obtain tipping diagrams by numerical continuation of such bifurcations. We apply our framework to an illustrative model of a habitat patch that features an Allee effect in population growth and is geographically shrinking or shifting due to human activity or climate change. Thus, we identify two classes of tipping points to extinction: bifurcation-induced tipping (B-tipping) when the shrinking habitat falls below some critical length and rate-induced tipping (R-tipping) when the shifting habitat exceeds some critical speed. We explore two-parameter R-tipping diagrams to understand how the critical speed depends on the size of the habitat patch and the dispersal rate of the population, uncover parameter regions where the shifting population survives, and relate these regions to the invasion speed in an infinite homogeneous habitat. Furthermore, we contrast the tipping instabilities with gradual transitions to extinction found for logistic population growth without the Allee effect.