Forecasting landslides using community detection on geophysical satellite data

Abstract

As a result of extreme weather conditions, such as heavy precipitation, natural hillslopes can fail dramatically; these slope failures can occur on a dry day due to time lags between rainfall and pore-water pressure change at depth, or even after days to years of slow-motion. While the pre-failure deformation is sometimes apparent in retrospect, it remains challenging to predict the sudden transition from gradual deformation (creep) to runaway failure. We use a network science method -- multilayer modularity optimization -- to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of deformation in a region near the 2017 Mud Creek, California landslide. We transform satellite radar data from the study site into a spatially-embedded network in which the nodes are patches of ground and the edges connect the nearest neighbors, with a series of layers representing consecutive transits of the satellite. Each edge is weighted by the product of the local slope (susceptibility to failure) measured from a digital elevation model and ground surface deformation (current rheological state) from interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR). We use multilayer modularity optimization to identify strongly-connected clusters of nodes (communities) and are able to identify both the location of Mud Creek and nearby creeping landslides which have not yet failed. We develop a metric, community persistence, to quantify patterns of ground deformation leading up to failure, and find that this metric increases from a baseline value in the weeks leading up to Mud Creek's failure. These methods promise as a technique for highlighting regions at risk of catastrophic failure.