Transitions between quasi-stationary states in traffic systems: Cologne orbital motorways as an example

Shanshan Wang; Michael Schreckenberg; Thomas Guhr

doi:10.1088/1742-5468/acf210

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arXiv · 2302.14596

Transitions between quasi-stationary states in traffic systems: Cologne orbital motorways as an example

Shanshan Wang·Michael Schreckenberg·Thomas Guhr

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Abstract

Traffic systems can operate in different modes. In a previous work, we identified these modes as different quasi-stationary states in the correlation structure. Here, we analyze the transitions between such quasi-stationary states, i.e., how the system changes its operational mode. In the longer run this might be helpful to forecast the time evolution of correlation patterns in traffic. We take Cologne orbital motorways as an example, we construct a state transition network for each quarter of 2015 and find a seasonal dependence for those quasi-stationary states in the traffic system. Using the PageRank algorithm, we identify and explore the dominant states which occur frequently within a moving time window of 60 days in 2015. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study of this type for traffic systems.

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Shanshan Wang, Michael Schreckenberg, Thomas Guhr. 2023-02-28. Transitions between quasi-stationary states in traffic systems: Cologne orbital motorways as an example. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468%2Facf210

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