Starker Effekt von Schnelltests (Strong effect of rapid tests)

Jan Mohring; Michael Burger; Robert Feßler; Jochen Fiedler; Neele Leithäuser; Johanna Schneider; Michael Speckert; Jaroslaw Wlazlo

arXiv · 2304.05938

Starker Effekt von Schnelltests (Strong effect of rapid tests)

Jan Mohring·Michael Burger·Robert Feßler·Jochen Fiedler·Neele Leithäuser·Johanna Schneider·Michael Speckert·Jaroslaw Wlazlo

View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

This article is a reproduction of a Fraunhofer ITWM report from 28 June 2021 on the contribution of various non-pharmaceutical measures in breaking the 3rd Corona wave in Germany. The main finding is that testing contributed more to the containment of the pandemic in this phase than vaccination or contact restrictions. The analysis is based on a new epidemiological cohort model that represents testing, vaccination and contact restrictions by time-varying rates of detection, vaccination and contacts, respectively. Only the effectiveness of different vaccines is taken from the literature. All other parameters are automatically identified in such a way that the simulated and the published incidences and death rates match. Among these parameters are incubation time, mean duration of the infectious phase, mortality rate, as well as two contact rates and one detection rate per week. Note that we can reconstruct such a high number of parameters only because we assume that the weekly wave patterns in new infections follow real infection dynamics, periodically driven by high contact rates on weekdays and lower ones on weekends. Usually, people assume that the weekly wave patterns are just reporting artefacts and that weekly mean values are the finest usable data. One focus of the paper is to quantify the increase in detection rate due to the introduction of rapid testing in schools. For this purpose, we compare federal states that differ in the start of school tests and Easter holidays. There is a clear temporal correlation with the identified detection rates. Finally, we compare the effect of the individual non-pharmaceutical measures by replacing one by one the fitted rates of detection, vaccination and contacts by neutral ones. The increase in the simulated number of actually infected persons measures the effect of the measure ignored.

Explore related subjects

q-bio.OT

Keep this discovery

BibTeX RIS

Jan Mohring, Michael Burger, Robert Feßler, Jochen Fiedler, Neele Leithäuser, Johanna Schneider, Michael Speckert, Jaroslaw Wlazlo. 2023-04-12. Starker Effekt von Schnelltests (Strong effect of rapid tests). https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.05938

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

MarkerScout: A Disease-Agnostic Machine Learning Framework for Biomarker Prediction from Multi-Scale Mechanistic Models

We demonstrate the framework on three infectious diseases derived from a companion mechanistic immune-simulation platform: SARS-CoV-2, Influenza A Virus, and Plasmodium falciparum. Each disease was evaluated across hospitalization and intensive care unit cohorts, yielding six cohorts in total. Best-pipeline cross-validated macro F1 ranged from 0.82 for IAV-HOSP to 0.99 for COV-ICU, and the framework produced tiered, direction-aware biomarker lists for each disease and phase. Interleukin-18 (IL-18) reached the strongest tier in both SARS-CoV-2 phases with consistent direction. When benchmarked against three separate, independently collected clinical ICU datasets, MarkerScout's top-ranked features outperformed 94.4% of randomly selected feature sets of equivalent size for SARS-CoV-2, with a weaker but directionally consistent advantage for Influenza A Virus (66.7%) and Plasmodium falciparum (60.7%).

q-bio.OT↗

arXiv2026

Enhancing Clinical Decision Support and Differential Diagnosis with Knowledge Graphs, and Retrieval Augmented Generation in Generative AI

Diagnostic error carries a burden, while unconstrained large language models (LLMs) remain vulnerable to hallucination and weak integration of quantitative laboratory dynamics. We developed a decision-support pipeline combining disease-specific biomarker correlation graphs, ordinary differential equations (ODEs), deep sequence classification, and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). For 103 disease classes from a full blood count (FBC) repository, biomarker networks were used as coupling matrices to generate 30 trajectories per disease (3,090 total). A one-dimensional convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) network classified disease trajectories and six dynamical clusters. A constrained GPT-4o-mini RAG layer used a 19-pattern BMJ Best Practice/NICE corpus to generate differential diagnoses evaluated for diagnostic suitability, evidential grounding, and clinical plausibility. Across five random-seed runs, disease-level accuracy was $0.940 \pm 0.006$ for the CNN (95\% CI 0.933--0.948) and $0.852 \pm 0.019$ for the LSTM (95\% CI 0.828--0.875); the CNN advantage was 8.87 percentage points (95\% CI 6.47--11.27; $t(4)=10.26$, $p=5.1\times10^{-4}$; Hedges' $g=3.67$). Among 100 sampled RAG cases, 96 parsed successfully; evidence was cited in 97.9\%, the true diagnosis was mentioned in 71.9\%, and the composite score was 3.82/5 with a 47.9\% strict pass rate. The central finding was a decoupling between grounding and diagnostic correctness: classifier-correct versus classifier-wrong outputs differed in diagnostic suitability but not evidential grounding. Post-hoc analysis confirmed a 1.02-point diagnostic-score difference (Mann--Whitney $p=0.0024$; Hedges' $g=0.72$), whereas grounding differed by only $-0.02$ points ($p=0.839$; $g=-0.04$).

q-bio.OT↗

arXiv2026

Expanding the Human Ancestry Ontology to include under-represented populations and ethnicities for broader utility in annotations

Successful discovery, integration and reuse of data relies on the availability of rich, well-structured and machine-readable metadata to describe every aspect of the data, from sample sources to collection processes to experimental protocols. The use of standardised terminologies to express concepts in a harmonised fashion lies at the core of high-quality data annotation, increasing the FAIRness of the data, facilitating data integration and promoting reproducibility. Here, we describe the Human Ancestry Ontology (HANCESTRO), originally developed to improve standardised reporting of genetic ancestry genomic resources such as the NHGRI-EBI GWAS Catalog and the Human Cell Atlas through high-level population descriptors, and more recently expanded to include diverse and previously under-represented populations in genomics and genetics research. HANCESTRO provides a framework for population descriptors that includes both ancestry based on the analysis of genetic information and self-reported ethnicity, which is based on social and cultural factors that don't necessarily align with genetic populations. By enabling the accurate and interoperable representation of population-related data, it promotes inclusive, representative and reproducible science.

q-bio.OT↗