Searcharxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2304.13063

Parameter estimation of binary black holes in the endpoint of the up-down instability

Viola De Renzis·Davide Gerosa·Matthew Mould·Riccardo Buscicchio·Lorenzo Zanga
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Black-hole binary spin precession admits equilibrium solutions corresponding to systems with (anti-) aligned spins. Among these, binaries in the up-down configuration, where the spin of the heavier (lighter) black hole is co- (counter-) aligned with the orbital angular momentum, might be unstable to small perturbations of the spin directions. The occurrence of the up-down instability leads to gravitational-wave sources that formed with aligned spins but are detected with precessing spins. We present a Bayesian procedure based on the Savage-Dickey density ratio to test the up-down origin of gravitational-wave events. This is applied to both simulated signals, which indicate that achieving strong evidence is within the reach of current experiments, and the LIGO/Virgo events released to date, which indicate that current data are not informative enough.

Explore related subjects

gr-qcastro-ph.HE

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Viola De Renzis, Davide Gerosa, Matthew Mould, Riccardo Buscicchio, Lorenzo Zanga. 2023-04-25. Parameter estimation of binary black holes in the endpoint of the up-down instability. https://doi.org/10.1103/physrevd.108.024024

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Electrovacuum Black Hole Uniqueness

We prove the black hole uniqueness conjecture in the axially symmetric, stationary, electrovacuum setting, subject to the refined asymptotic analysis of the associated singular harmonic maps, which includes an analyticity hypothesis at the axes. More precisely, it is shown that any asymptotically flat solution of the Einstein--Maxwell equations in this class, with more than one black hole horizon component is either: Majumdar--Papapetrou, up to a duality rotation, in which case all logarithmic angle defects vanish, or every finite axis rod logarithmic angle defect is strictly negative and hence every interaction force is strictly attractive. The proof extends the singular harmonic map method used for vacuum Kerr uniqueness in [18].

gr-qc↗
arXiv2026

Constraining Modified Mass-to-Horizon Cosmology Through Primordial Inflationary Observables

We investigate slow-roll inflation in a modified cosmological framework inspired by a generalized mass-to-horizon relation (MHR), $M=\gamma {c^2 L^n}/{G}$, where $n$ is a real parameter and $\gamma$ a dimensional constant. Using Padmanabhan's emergence paradigm, we derive the modified Friedmann equations for a flat FRW universe and analyze the dynamics of a canonical scalar field (inflaton) under the slow-roll approximation. We study the resulting inflationary phenomenology for power-law and Starobinsky potentials. For power-law potentials, the MHR modification fails to reconcile these models with current CMB constraints on $r$ and $n_s$. In contrast, Starobinsky inflation exhibits significant sensitivity to deviations from $n=1$. A perturbative analysis ($n=1+\Delta$) yields corrections to inflationary observables. We observe that the scalar power-spectrum normalization, under a fixed-Starobinsky prescription, imposes the stringent constraint $0.960 \lesssim n \lesssim 1.040$ for $N=60$ efolds. This is considerably tighter than spectral-index bounds. Our results establish inflation, particularly Starobinsky-like models, as a sensitive probe of generalized horizon thermodynamics and departures from standard MHR scaling.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2026

Improving the Sensitivity of Gravitational Wave Detection with Weighted Conformal Prediction

In the last decade, kilometre-scale interferometric gravitational-wave detectors have observed hundreds of compact binary mergers, the majority of which are binary black holes. However, the data are noise-dominated, and multiple independent search algorithms (pipelines) are used to enhance sensitivity and improve robustness. Rather than the standard approach of selecting the most significant pipeline output, we combine the outputs from all pipelines using a conformal prediction-based framework to provide statistically rigorous confidence estimates for candidate events. While combining pipelines improves sensitivity and ranking robustness, it requires a principled statistical framework that remains valid as data properties evolve across observing runs. A key challenge is distribution shifts between simulated datasets used for training and calibration and the real, unlabelled, observations used for testing, which can invalidate coverage guarantees and bias confidence estimates. In this work, we address this challenge by incorporating likelihood-ratio reweighting into our conformal prediction framework to account for covariate shift. Using mock datasets containing simulated signals, we demonstrate that weighted conformal prediction restores well-calibrated coverage under covariate shift and increases the confidence of events near the detection threshold, recovering true signals that would otherwise be missed.

gr-qc↗