Spatio-temporal chaos and clustering induced by nonlocal information and vaccine hesitancy in the SIR epidemic model

Malay Banerjee; Samiran Ghosh; Piero Manfredi; Alberto d'Onofrio

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arXiv · 2305.02191

Spatio-temporal chaos and clustering induced by nonlocal information and vaccine hesitancy in the SIR epidemic model

Malay Banerjee·Samiran Ghosh·Piero Manfredi·Alberto d'Onofrio

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Abstract

Human behavior, and in particular vaccine hesitancy, is a critical factor for the control of childhood infectious disease. Here we propose a spatio-temporal behavioral epidemiology model where the vaccine propensity depends on information that is non-local in space and in time. The properties of the proposed model are analysed under different hypotheses on the spatio-temporal kernels tuning the vaccination response of individuals. As a main result, we could numerically show that vaccine hesitancy induces the onset of many dynamic patterns of relevance for epidemiology. In particular we observed: behavior-modulated patterns and spatio-temporal chaos. This is the first known example of human behavior-induced spatio-temporal chaos in statistical physics of vaccination. Patterns and spatio-temporal chaos are difficult to deal with, from the Public Health viewpoint, hence showing that vaccine hesitancy can cause them could be of interest. Additionally, we propose a new simple heuristic algorithm to estimate the Maximum Lyapunov Exponent.

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Malay Banerjee, Samiran Ghosh, Piero Manfredi, Alberto d'Onofrio. 2023-02-06. Spatio-temporal chaos and clustering induced by nonlocal information and vaccine hesitancy in the SIR epidemic model. https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.02191

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