Maintaining Stability and Plasticity for Predictive Churn Reduction

Abstract

Deployed machine learning models should be updated to take advantage of a larger sample size to improve performance, as more data is gathered over time. Unfortunately, even when model updates improve aggregate metrics such as accuracy, they can lead to errors on samples that were correctly predicted by the previous model causing per-sample regression in performance known as predictive churn. Such prediction flips erode user trust thereby reducing the effectiveness of the human-AI team as a whole. We propose a solution called Accumulated Model Combination (AMC) based keeping the previous and current model version, and generating a meta-output using the prediction of the two models. AMC is a general technique and we propose several instances of it, each having their own advantages depending on the model and data properties. AMC requires minimal additional computation and changes to training procedures. We motivate the need for AMC by showing the difficulty of making a single model consistent with its own predictions throughout training thereby revealing an implicit stability-plasticity tradeoff when training a single model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of AMC on a variety of modalities including computer vision, text, and tabular datasets comparing against state-of-the-art churn reduction methods, and showing superior churn reduction ability compared to all existing methods while being more efficient than ensembles.