Emergent circulation patterns from anonymized mobility data: Clustering Italy in the time of Covid

Abstract

Using anonymized mobility data from Facebook users and publicly available information on the Italian population, we model the circulation of people in Italy before and during the early phase of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic (COVID-19). We perform a spatial and temporal clustering of the movement network at the level of fluxes across provinces on a daily basis. The resulting partition in time successfully identifies the first two lockdowns without any prior information. Similarly, the spatial clustering returns 11 to 23 clusters depending on the period ("standard" mobility vs. lockdown) using the greedy modularity communities clustering method, and 16 to 30 clusters using the critical variable selection method. Fascinatingly, the spatial clusters obtained with both methods are strongly reminiscent of the 11 regions into which emperor Augustus had divided Italy according to Pliny the Elder. This work introduces and validates a data analysis pipeline that enables us: i) to assess the reliability of data obtained from a partial and potentially biased sample of the population in performing estimates of population mobility nationwide; ii) to identify areas of a Country with well-defined mobility patterns, and iii) to distinguish different patterns from one another, resolve them in time and find their optimal spatial extent. The proposed method is generic and can be applied to other countries, with different geographical scales, and also to similar networks (e.g. biological networks). The results can thus represent a relevant step forward in the development of methods and strategies for the containment of future epidemic phenomena.