The N-ary in the Coal Mine: Avoiding Mixture Model Failure with Proper Validation

Abstract

Modeling the properties of chemical mixtures is a difficult but important part of any modeling process intended to be applicable to the often messy and impure phenomena of everyday life, including food and environmental safety, healthcare, etc. Part of this difficulty stems from the increased complexity of designing suitable model validation schemes for mixture data, a fact which has been elucidated in previous work only in the case of binary mixture models. We extend these previously defined validation strategies for QSAR modeling of binary mixtures to the more complex case of general, $N$-ary mixtures and argue that these strategies are applicable to many modeling tasks beyond simple chemical mixtures. Additionally, we propose a method of establishing a baseline model performance for each mixture dataset to be in used in model selection comparisons. This baseline is intended to account for the statistical dependence generically present between the properties of mixtures that share constituents. We contend that without such a baseline, estimates of model performance can be dramatically overestimated, and we demonstrate this with multiple case studies using real and simulated data.