Flashpoints Signal Hidden Inherent Instabilities in Land-Use Planning

Abstract

Land-use decision-making processes have a long history of producing globally pervasive systemic equity and sustainability concerns. Quantitative, optimization-based planning approaches, e.g. Multi-Objective Land Allocation (MOLA), seemingly open the possibility to improve objectivity and transparency by explicitly evaluating planning priorities by the type, amount, and location of land uses. Here, we show that optimization-based planning approaches with generic planning criteria generate a series of unstable "flashpoints" whereby tiny changes in planning priorities produce large-scale changes in the amount of land use by type. We give quantitative arguments that the flashpoints we uncover in MOLA models are examples of a more general family of instabilities that occur whenever planning accounts for factors that coordinate use on- and between-sites, regardless of whether these planning factors are formulated explicitly or implicitly. We show that instabilities lead to regions of ambiguity in land-use type that we term "gray areas". By directly mapping gray areas between flashpoints, we show that quantitative methods retain utility by reducing combinatorially large spaces of possible land-use patterns to a small, characteristic set that can engage stakeholders to arrive at more efficient and just outcomes.