Average partial effect estimation using double machine learning

Abstract

Single-parameter summaries of variable effects in regression settings are desirable for ease of interpretation. However (partially) linear models for example, which would deliver these, may fit poorly to the data. On the other hand, an interpretable summary of the contribution of a given predictor is provided by the so-called average partial effect: the average slope of the regression function with respect to the predictor of interest. Although one can construct a doubly robust procedure for estimating this quantity, it entails estimating the derivative of the conditional mean and also the conditional score of the predictor of interest given all others, tasks which can be very challenging in moderate dimensions: in particular, popular decision tree based regression methods cannot be used. In this work we introduce an approach for estimating the average partial effect whose accuracy depends primarily on the estimation of certain regression functions, which may be performed by user-chosen machine learning methods that produce potentially non-differentiable estimates. Our procedure involves resmoothing a given first-stage regression estimator to produce a differentiable version, and modelling the conditional distribution of the predictor of interest through a location--scale model. We show that with the latter assumption, surprisingly the overall error in estimating the conditional score is controlled by a sum of errors of estimating the conditional mean and conditional standard deviation, and the estimation error in a much more tractable univariate score estimation problem. Our theory makes use of a new result on the sub-Gaussianity of Lipschitz score functions that may be of independent interest. We demonstrate the attractive numerical performance of our approach in a variety of settings including ones with misspecification.