Exact description of limiting SIR and SEIR dynamics on locally tree-like graphs

Abstract

We study the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) models of epidemics, with possibly time-varying rates, on a class of networks that are locally tree-like, which includes sparse Erd\H{o}s-R\`enyi random graphs, random regular graphs, and other configuration models. We identify tractable systems of ODEs that exactly describe the dynamics of the SIR and SEIR processes in a suitable asymptotic regime in which the population size goes to infinity. Moreover, in the case of constant recovery and infection rates, we characterize the outbreak size as the unique zero of an explicit functional. We use this to show that a (suitably defined) mean-field prediction always overestimates the outbreak size, and that the outbreak sizes for SIR and SEIR processes with the same initial condition and constant infection and recovery rates coincide. In contrast, we show that the outbreak sizes for SIR and SEIR processes with the same time-varying infection and recovery rates can in general be quite different. We also demonstrate via simulations the efficacy of our approximations for populations of moderate size.