Infection Curve Flattening via Targeted Interventions and Self-Isolation

Abstract

Understanding the impact of network clustering and small-world properties on epidemic spread can be crucial in developing effective strategies for managing and controlling infectious diseases. Particularly in this work, we study the impact of these network features on targeted intervention (e.g., self-isolation and quarantine). The targeted individuals for self-isolation are based on centrality measures and node influence metrics. Compared to our previous works on scale-free networks, small-world networks are considered in this paper. Small-world networks resemble real-world social and human networks. In this type of network, most nodes are not directly connected but can be reached through a few intermediaries (known as the small-worldness property). Real social networks, such as friendship networks, also exhibit this small-worldness property, where most people are connected through a relatively small number of intermediaries. We particularly study the epidemic curve flattening by centrality-based interventions/isolation over small-world networks. Our results show that high clustering while having low small-worldness (higher shortest path characteristics) implies flatter infection curves. In reality, a flatter infection curve implies that the number of new cases of a disease is spread out over a longer period of time, rather than a sharp and sudden increase in cases (a peak in epidemic). In turn, this reduces the strain on healthcare resources and helps to relieve the healthcare services.