Modeling and Analysis of the Epidemic-Behavior Co-evolution Dynamics with User Irrationality

Wenxiang Dong; H. Vicky Zhao

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arXiv · 2310.17112

Modeling and Analysis of the Epidemic-Behavior Co-evolution Dynamics with User Irrationality

Wenxiang Dong·H. Vicky Zhao

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Abstract

During a public health crisis like COVID-19, individuals' adoption of protective behaviors, such as self-isolation and wearing masks, can significantly impact the spread of the disease. In the meanwhile, the spread of the disease can also influence individuals' behavioral choices. Moreover, when facing uncertain losses, individuals' decisions tend to be irrational. Therefore, it is critical to study individuals' irrational behavior choices in the context of a pandemic. In this paper, we propose an epidemic-behavior co-evolution model that captures the dynamic interplay between individual decision-making and disease spread. To account for irrational decision-making, we incorporate the Prospect Theory in our individual behavior modeling. We conduct a theoretical analysis of the model, examining the steady states that emerge from the co-evolutionary process. We use simulations to validate our theoretical findings and gain further insights. This investigation aims to enhance our understanding of the complex dynamics between individual behavior and disease spread during a pandemic.

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Wenxiang Dong, H. Vicky Zhao. 2023-10-26. Modeling and Analysis of the Epidemic-Behavior Co-evolution Dynamics with User Irrationality. https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.17112

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