Evaluating the variance of individual halo properties in constrained cosmological simulations

Abstract

Constrained cosmological simulations play an important role in modelling the local Universe, enabling investigation of the dark matter content of local structures and their formation. We introduce an internal method for quantifying the extent to which the variance of individual halo properties is suppressed by the constraints imposed on the initial conditions. We apply it to the Constrained Simulations in BORG (CSiBORG) suite of $101$ high-resolution realisations across the posterior probability distribution of initial conditions from the Bayesian Origin Reconstruction from Galaxies (BORG) algorithm. The method is based on the overlap of the initial Lagrangian patch of a halo in one simulation with those in another, measuring the degree to which the haloes' particles are initially coincident. This addresses the extent to which the imposed large-scale structure constraints reduce the variance of individual halo properties. We find consistent reconstructions of $M\gtrsim10^{14}~M_\odot / h$ haloes, indicating that the constraints from the BORG algorithm are sufficient to pin down the masses, positions, and peculiar velocities of clusters to high precision, though we do not assess how well they reproduce observations of the local Universe. The effect of the constraints tapers off towards lower mass, and the halo spins and concentrations are largely unconstrained at all masses. We document the advantages of evaluating halo consistency in the initial conditions and describe how the method may be used to quantify our knowledge of the halo field given galaxy survey data analysed through the lens of probabilistic inference machines such as BORG.