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arXiv · 2311.15483

A polynomial regression model for excess mortality in Mexico 2020-2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic

Andreu Comas-García·Arturo Erdely
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Abstract

Based on the comprehensive national death registry of Mexico spanning from 1998 to 2022 a point and interval estimation method for the excess mortality in Mexico during the years 2020-2022 is proposed based on illness-induced deaths only, using a polynomial regression model. The results obtained estimate that the excess mortality is around 788,000 people (39.3%) equivalently to a rate of 626 per 100,000 inhabitants. The male/female ratio is estimated to be 1.7 times. As a reference for comparison, for the whole period 2020-2020 Mexico's INEGI estimated an excess of mortality between 673,000 with a quasi-Poisson model and 808,000 using endemic channels estimation.

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Andreu Comas-García, Arturo Erdely. 2023-11-27. A polynomial regression model for excess mortality in Mexico 2020-2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.15483

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