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arXiv · 2311.16572

Adapting to climate change: Long-term impact of wind resource changes on China's power system resilience

Jiaqi Ruan·Xiangrui Meng·Yifan Zhu·Gaoqi Liang·Xianzhuo Sun·Huayi Wu·Huijuan Xiao·Mengqian Lu·Pin Gao·Jiapeng Li·Wai-Kin Wong·Zhao Xu·Junhua Zhao
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Abstract

Modern society's reliance on power systems is at risk from the escalating effects of wind-related climate change. Yet, failure to identify the intricate relationship between wind-related climate risks and power systems could lead to serious short- and long-term issues, including partial or complete blackouts. Here, we develop a comprehensive framework to assess China's power system resilience across various climate change scenarios, enabling a holistic evaluation of the repercussions induced by wind-related climate change. Our findings indicate that China's current wind projects and planning strategies could be jeopardized by wind-related climate change, with up to a 12\% decline in regional wind power availability. Moreover, our results underscore a pronounced vulnerability of power system resilience amidst the rigors of hastened climate change, unveiling a potential amplification of resilience deterioration, even approaching fourfold by 2060 under the most severe scenario, relative to the 2020 benchmark. This work advocates for strategic financial deployment within the power sector aimed at climate adaptation, enhancing power system resilience to avert profound losses from long-term, wind-influenced climatic fluctuations.

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Jiaqi Ruan, Xiangrui Meng, Yifan Zhu, Gaoqi Liang, Xianzhuo Sun, Huayi Wu, Huijuan Xiao, Mengqian Lu, Pin Gao, Jiapeng Li, Wai-Kin Wong, Zhao Xu, Junhua Zhao. 2023-11-28. Adapting to climate change: Long-term impact of wind resource changes on China's power system resilience. https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.16572

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